Premier League Predictions: What the Data Says About Newcastle United’s Title Chances

Our Football by ONE content series provides you with data-driven insights into the Premier League; led by Seriös Group’s Senior Insights Analyst Jay and Insights Analyst – Football Specialist Adam, each edition offers a breakdown of the biggest talking points of the season. Using Opta data ingested into Seriös ONE, our analysts uncover key trends and insights, whether that’s player, team, or season focused.  

In a recent edition of the series, we looked at the chances of each club winning the Premier League using Opta’s season simulation data. The main talking points included how Liverpool, Arsenal, and Man City were given the odds.  

Newcastle's outside chances perhaps sparked the greatest interest, and our findings were recently featured in The Chronicle, where we explored Newcastle United’s prospects in the 2025/26 Premier League and why the data suggests their wait for a title may continue. 

Newcastle United’s near century-long wait for a topflight title looks set to go on according to experts predicting the destination of the 2025/26 Premier League crown.  

Newcastle United last celebrated league success in 1927 and key stats compiled ahead of this weekend’s big kick-off provide little hope of an immediate change in fortunes.  

Restrictive PSR rules, a less than convincing transfer window and the ongoing saga around Alexander Isak’s immediate future have all contributed to data predicting the probability of Eddie Howe’s men topping the standings next summer.  

And the numbers simply don’t add up for the 2025 Carabao Cup winners, with reigning champions and Isak suitors Liverpool clear favourites to clinch back-to-back titles, with or without United’s most bankable asset leading the line.  

Our Football Insight Analysts pulled data from Opta into Seriös ONE to create a table revealing the top 10 teams most likely to win the Premier League this season which can be seen below. 

Newcastle sits sixth behind Saturday’s opening day opponents Aston Villa with a 4.75 per cent chance of being crowned champions. Unay Emery’s men boast slightly better odds but the clear favourites are big-spending Liverpool.  

Liverpool were at St James’s Park on August 25th and our Analysts gave them a 28 per cent chance of retaining their title.   

A revamped Arsenal had a 24 per cent chance of ending their own 22-year wait for a Premier League crown with Manchester City (19.18 per cent) seen as the only other serious contender to put pressure on Liverpool.  

Unsurprisingly, given last season’s disastrous domestic showing, Manchester United are nowhere to be seen in the list of the 10 clubs most likely to clinch the topflight crown next summer.   

And according to our Analyst number crunchers, one-time Toon targets Benjamin Sesko and Bryan Mbeumo have some way to go before they can even think about celebrating a league title with their new club.  

Elsewhere Nottingham Forest, surprise title outsiders for much of last season are predicted to find things far tougher this time around with the East Midlanders given a less than one per cent chance of winning the league.  

Find out how Seriös ONE can help you get more insights from your data.